Ethiopia is one of Africa’s most dynamic and rapidly evolving economies. With a population of 108.4 million people, expanding industrial sectors, and growing regional trade influence, the country holds significant potential for sustained economic growth. Yet like many emerging economies, Ethiopia faces structural challenges in mobilizing domestic revenue effectively. 

Bridging the gap between economic activity and tax collection is essential for financing infrastructure, strengthening public services, and sustaining long-term development. Three key factors — illicit trade and financial flows, inefficient tax collection systems, and a large informal economy — continue to limit the full realization of Ethiopia’s revenue potential. 

In addition, Ethiopia aims to accelerate digital transformation across the economy and public institutions by 2030, focusing on connectivity, digital services, innovation, skills, and inclusion, according to Digital Ethiopia 2030 (DE2030). 

Digitizing core economic systems offers a powerful opportunity to address the challenges and unlock new pathways for national growth. Digital transformation solutions like those developed by traceCORE provide governments with the tools needed to formalize economic activity, improve transparency, and significantly increase tax revenue. 

Ethiopia’s Revenue Mobilization Challenge: Implementing traceCORE Solutions 

Despite strong economic momentum, many African countries, including Ethiopia, face structural limitations in tax collection. 

Illicit trade and Financial Flows 

Illicit trade and unrecorded transactions weaken tax systems and distort markets. Counterfeit products, smuggling, and under-reported imports erode government revenue and harm legitimate businesses. As reported by UNCTAD, informal cross-border trade (ICBT) accounts for 30-40% of total trade in Sub-Saharan Africa. 

Digital traceability systems can transform enforcement capacity by tracking goods across supply chains. With traceCORE Digital Track and Trace, governments can monitor product movement, detect counterfeit goods, and strengthen excise tax collection through centralized digital oversight. 

For example, Ethiopia could see its tax base increase by USD $1.23 billion following the implementation of traceCORE’s Digital Track and Trace system across tobacco and alcohol sectors, according to our estimates based on open data provided by Statista. 

Insufficient Tax Collection Capacity 

Across Africa, tax revenue averages around 20% of GDP, as reported by UNECA, compared with about 30% in OECD countries. Much of this gap is caused by inefficiencies in administration rather than tax policy itself. 

For example, VAT represents roughly one-third of total tax revenue, yet collection efficiency in many African countries remains below 50%.  

Ethiopia’s current VAT gap is 83%, according to IFS. Well-designed and comprehensive implementation of B2B and B2C e-invoicing can significantly close this gap by delivering real-time fiscal data to tax authorities. 

traceCORE B2B and B2C E-Invoicing are designed to automate these processes, enabling governments to capture retail transactions, ensure accurate reporting, and monitor economic activity more effectively. We estimate that, following the implementation of these systems, Ethiopia’s VAT collection could increase from USD $2.3 billion to USD $12.85 billion, reducing the VAT gap to 5% and generating an additional USD $10.56 billion in tax revenue. 

Informal Employment and Shadow Economies 

According to JPIA, nearly 86% of employment is informal in Sub-Saharan Africa. Most micro and small enterprises operate outside the formal tax system, limiting both government revenue and access to financial services for workers. 

Digital transformation tools can bridge this gap by creating simple, low-cost pathways for informal workers to enter the formal economy. 

traceCORE Self-Employment Tax Solution enables governments to automate taxation for self-employed workers via a user-friendly service. This approach reduces administrative burdens while making tax compliance easier for individuals and small businesses.  

In Ethiopia, informal employment reaches 54%, or 28.77 million people, according to ILO. We concluded that introducing a simplified tax regime for self-employed workers, featuring a low 5% rate and easy-to-use digital transformation tools, could help the Government of Ethiopia formalize 13.16 million people and generate an additional USD $757.5 million in annual tax revenue. 

Mobile Economy Compliance and Transparency 

As mobile usage and digital payments continue to expand across Ethiopia, ensuring transparency in mobile device circulation and financial transactions is becoming increasingly important.  

Strengthening controls over device legality and tracking mobile transactions can help reduce fraud, combat illicit activity, and unlock new revenue streams for the government while supporting a more secure and compliant digital economy 

Ensuring Market Integrity Through Mobile Device Legality Control 

traceCORE Mobile Device Legality Control is a comprehensive system that ensures all SIM-enabled devices operating in the country comply with legal and regulatory standards. Using International Mobile Equipment Identity (IMEI) numbers, the system verifies device legality, enforces mobile registration fees, and ensures proper tax compliance. 

All legal mobile devices operating in the country must have their IMEI numbers registered in a government-controlled system. This allows authorities to monitor for theft, counterfeiting, and tax evasion. Devices that are not registered are considered illegal and will have their mobile connections disabled. 

Based on experiences from other countries, we recommend the Government of Ethiopia to implement a differentiated mobile device registration fee: USD $30 for smartphones and USD $5 for feature phones. This approach is estimated to generate a total revenue of USD $426 million. 

The introduction of a differentiated mobile device registration fee is also expected to boost VAT revenue, with total additional VAT estimated at USD $63.9 million. 

 
Enhancing Financial Transparency with Mobile Transaction Tracking 

traceCORE Mobile Transaction Tracking is a centralized reporting and analytics system that provides regulatory authorities with real-time transparency over all mobile financial transactions. 

The potential controlled tax base after launching the solution in Ethiopia is estimated at USD $29.1 million annually, based on open data and traceCORE analytics. In addition, USD $4.4 million can be collected in VAT. 

Unlocking Revenue Potential: Total Gains from traceCORE Digital Transformation Solutions 

The implementation of traceCORE solutions will lead to the following results: 

• Reducing the shadow economy and formalizing economic activity. 

• Generating additional revenue to invest in infrastructure, education, private sector support, and financial inclusion. 

• Enhancing investment attractiveness through transparent and reliable governance. 

• Empowering the private sector with user-friendly taxation tools and clear tax policies. 

• Creating a level playing field for fair competition. 

• Improving business productivity across industries. 

 
Digital transformation solutions by traceCORE don’t just increase tax revenue; they create transparent economic ecosystems that foster business confidence and sustainable growth. 

For a country like Ethiopia that is rapidly industrializing and positioning itself as a regional trade hub, these digital foundations could significantly accelerate GDP growth.

A Digital Future for Ethiopia’s Economy 

The next phase of economic development across Africa will be driven not only by population growth and industrial expansion, but also by smart governance and digital public infrastructure. 

By implementing digital transformation solutions, governments can transform the way economies operate. 

At traceCORE, we help governments around the world build this infrastructure and turn digital transparency into stronger public finances and long-term economic resilience. 

For Ethiopia, digitizing its economic backbone could be one of the most powerful catalysts for unlocking the country’s full economic potential.